What happened on the crypto market in September?
This past month, the crypto market experienced high volatility for BTC (between $18,500 and $22,500). The ETH Merge on September 15 and lower-than-expected inflation figures pushed the market up to $22,500 in the first weeks of September, but BTC pulled back by almost 10% post ETH Merge. The correction extended after the 75bps raise of interest rates by the Fed which rekindled investors’ fears of a recession.
Source: TradingView – Past performance not indicative of future results.
The market then entered a risk-off period in the last 2 weeks of September with all risky assets falling: equities of SPX, Nasdaq and Eurostoxx50 ended the month with a 10% drawdown, 10 Year Treasury Rate spiked to 4% and the US volatility index (VIX) rose above 30%. In this context, cryptos returned to their lows: $18,500 for BTC and ETH at $1,250.
In the last few days, with US unemployment figures higher than predicted, investors are easing their expectations on interest rises and all assets are rebounding.
We are now standing in a $18,000/$20,000 range for BTC. In order to rebound above the $20,000 mark, the market would need more catalysts from the macroeconomic and geopolitical sides.
How did HAL strategies perform in September?
HAL strategies suffered from this high volatility.
Best performers were:
· Pulse: ETH with +5.42% (vs -17.13% ETH). The strategy benefited from a short exposure on September 15 before the big drop from $1,600 to $1,300.
· Wise: BNB with +4.09% (vs +1.75% BNB). It demonstrated a good sense of timing by cutting its long exposure on September 12.
· Wise: XRP with +1.98% (vs +44.67% XRP). The strategy was too late in triggering a long exposure to the XRP rally.
Worst performers:
· Pulse: ETH-BTC with -19.58% (vs +2.91% BTC). It suffered both from the ETH drop and the lack of clear trend at the end of September, leading to many false signals.
· Pulse: BTC with -15.75% (vs +2.91% BTC) for the same reasons as Pulse ETH-BTC.
· Wise: ETH-BTC with -14.57% (vs +2.91% BTC). It made losses on its long exposure pre-Merge, which it unwound in the post-Merge drawdown.
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Disclaimer:
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of all the money you invest. In particular, crypto-assets are a highly volatile and speculative asset class. HAL is only suitable for traders who are willing to bear the risk of loss and experience sharp drawdowns. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The performances presented are real performances calculated net of execution fees and slippage from a proprietary Binance account.
The purpose of this material is to provide objective, educational and interesting commentary and analysis on developments in the crypto-assets sector. Nothing in this material should be interpreted as constituting an offer of (or any solicitation in connection with) any investment products or services by any member of the CoinShares Group where it may be illegal to do so. Access to any investment products or services of the CoinShares Group is in all cases subject to the applicable laws and regulations relating thereto.